It too PECOTA three tries to “fix” their projections. And it’s just projections at that. Today the CHONE projections are available, and they have the Yankees at the top of the division, winning 99 games. This was first seen on Sliding into Home.
Here’s what Sean said on the site:
But yet I’m projecting 99 wins for the defending world champions. I think this is the highest projection I’ve ever had, for any team. I had them at 97 last year and they beat it by 6. I like the moves they have made in the last year. Curtis Granderson is a tremendous player who helps on offense and defense (at least against righties). Javier Vazquez was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year, and Nick Johnson is OBP Jesus. The Yankees are insanely talented, even more so than usual. The breaks of the season could mean that Boston wins the East, or even Tampa Bay, but the talent spread is so huge in this division that Baltimore and Toronto have basically no chance.
I’ve got to chuckle at the Johnson “OBP Jesus” comment.
I don’t take too much insight into the PECOTA or CHONE projections. They are just guesses, not actual performance ratings.
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